As the nation keenly awaits the final results of the hotly-contested assembly elections in five states, exit polls Friday predicted a photo finish contest between the BJP and the Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and a win for the grand old party in Rajasthan. The exit polls also predicted that the K Chandrashekhar Rao-led TRS is poised for a second term in Telangana.
Among the agencies which predicted the election results were Times Now-CNX, India Today exit poll, Republic-C-Voters, News24 and NewsX, Here is a state-wise breakdown of exit polls as predicted by different agencies today.
Rajasthan- Exit polls predict a comfortable win for Congress
Most of the exit polls predicted a comfortable win for Congress in Rajasthan with the grand old party marching towards a majority mark. The BJP is battling strong anti-incumbency in Rajasthan, a state that has not voted the ruling party for a second term in the last 20 years.
India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll said the Congress may win 119-141 out of total 199 seats. The BJP, it projected, may win 55-72 seats. Times Now-CNX forecast 105 seats for Congress and 85 for BJP. However, Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat forecast a tighter race between the two parties. It gave the Congress and the BJP 81-101 and 83-103 seats respectively.
Polling was conducted in 199 out of 200 seats in Rajasthan. Sachin Pilot, a two-time MP, is seen as a chief ministerial possibility if the Congress wins. The final results will determine whether the BJP bucks anti-incumbency or an increasingly aggressive Opposition to return to power. The majority mark in Rajasthan is 100.
Madhya Pradesh- Photo finish contest between Congress, BJP
Madhya Pradesh assembly elections is set to witness a tight contest between Congress and the ruling BJP, as per the exit polls. While Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat gave 108-128 seats to the BJP and 95-115 to the Congress in the 230-member Madhya Pradesh, India Today-Axis said the saffron party could win 102-120 seats as against 104-122 for the Congress. NewsX-ITV Network has predicted 112 seats for Congress while 106 seats for BJP. However, the results released by Times Now-CNX projects a clear victory for the BJP with 126 seats and 89 seats for the Congress.
On the other hand, ABP News exit poll said the Congress is likely to get a majority by bagging 126 seats. The BJP, it added, would get 94 seats.
BJP is seeking its fourth consecutive term in power in Madhya Pradesh. The majority mark is 116. Assembly elections were held on 230 seats in MP on November 28. The voter turnout recorded in MP was 74.61 as compared to 72.13 percent recorded in 2013.
Telangana- TRS to retain power
Exit polls for Telangana, which saw a high-octane poll campaign, were almost unanimous in predicting that TRS president and Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao’s gamble of advancing the assembly polls will pay off and he will retain power.
Times Now-CNX predicted 37 seats for Congress-TDP alliance where it projected TRS winning 66 seats. Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat, on the other hand, predicted 38-52 seats for Cong-TDP alliance while 50-65 seats for TRS. BJP could reach near 4-7 mark, as per the exit poll.
India Today-Axis My India exit polls projected 21-33 seats for Congress while 79-91 seats for TRS and 1-3 for BJP, respectively.
Telangana has a total of 119 seats with 60 as majority mark. Over 2.8 crore voters, 1.41 crore men and 1.39 crore women including 7.04 lakh voters under the age of 20, exercised their franchise in 32,815 polling stations on December 7. About 1 lakh police personnel, including 25,000 central paramilitary forces and 20,000 from other states were on poll duty in the state.
Chhattisgarh- Tight finish between BJP and Cong
Exit polls for Chhattisgarh showed that there was a tight contest between the two major parties. In the 90-member Chhattisgarh assembly, exit polls broadcast by Republic-C Voter predicted 35-43 seats for the BJP and 40-50 for the Congress while the News Nation forecast a close race with 38-42 seats for the BJP and 40-44 for the Congress.
Times Now-CNX projected 35 seats for Congress while 46 seats were predicted for BJP.
India Today- Axis MY India predicted the Congress is set to end Chief Minister Raman Singh’s 15-year old reign by winning anywhere between 55-65 seats. The BJP, it said, may be reduced to 21-31 seats.
However, all the exit polls said the alliance of former chief minister Ajit Jogi’s Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (Jogi) and the BSP may win between three and eight seats, which may help him to emerge as a king-maker in the event of a hung house.
Assembly elections were held in two phases in Chhattisgarh on November 12 and 20. The majority mark in Chhattisgarh is 46. Despite the boycott call, Chhattisgarh recorded an overall turnout of 76.35 percent in the two-phased assembly elections. In the 2013 assembly polls, the state witnessed an overall voter turnout of 77.40 percent. The polling percentage in 2013 was higher than the turnout in 2018 by over 1.05 percentage points.
Mizoram- Edge for MNF
Republic-C-Voters exit polls predicted 14-18 seats for Congress in the north-eastern state, while for MNF the projection was around 16-20 seats. The state conducted polls on 40 seats. The majority mark is 16. In Mizoram, over 73 percent of the 7.68 lakh voters exercised their franchise to elect a new assembly, in the polls conducted on November 28.
Mizoram is ruled by Congress where the incumbent chief minister and state party chief Lal Thanhawla is aiming for a third consecutive term.
Results for all five states will be announced on December 11. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan are all ruled by the BJP presently. Exit polls are conducted after a survey of people leaving a polling station. They are asked how they voted and on the basis of that, predictions are made regarding the likely outcome of elections in a particular state or states. However, there have been times when exit polls have been off the mark.
Exit polls 2018: Cong to oust BJP in Rajasthan, tight race in MP, Chhattisgarh; TRS sweep in Telangana – The Indian Express