All talk in London has shifted from parliament taking control of the Brexit process to Theresa May’s exit.
When she steps down as Prime Minister all depends on what happens before the end of this week.
May’s statement to backbench MPs made it clear that her departure was contingent on her Brexit deal passing the Commons this week. It’s worth remembering that the EU set that deadline.
If May can get the deal approved before March 29, then we enter the implementation period as outlined in the Withdrawal Agreement on May 22. It’s not yet known when the next phase of Brexit talks would begin, but May will go before that happens.
An event being talked about is the G20 summit in Japan, commencing on June 28. It’s unlikely – though not impossible – that a new prime minister would be installed before that date. So if a Conservative leadership contest kicks off at the start of July, we could reasonably expect a new prime minister by middle or late July.
But what if the deal doesn’t pass? In that event, the UK needs to inform the EU if it intends to take part in the EU Parliamentary elections. May has said that she did not want to have the UK stand in these elections. So it’s probable that in this event, she would depart from office on or around that date.
If the UK decided not to stand in these elections, then May’s deal hasn’t passed and she doesn’t have to make this concession. So based on her statement to MPs, she could claim that it’s fine her to stay on. But her position would be untenable and it’s hard to see how, in light of her deal failing and the UK crashing towards a no-deal Brexit that she clearly doesn’t favor, she could stomach staying on.
Theresa May to resign after Brexit as MPs vote — live updates – CNN International