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What not to do when betting this football season – New York Post

We’ve reached the week in the sports betting calendar when football joins baseball. The NFL Hall of Fame game is set for Thursday (Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons). That makes this the perfect time to think about using baseball betting strategies in football.

By now, you’re used to betting money lines in baseball. But, you probably focus most or all of your football energy on point spreads. Should you start betting money lines in football too once the regular season rolls around?

Sportsbooks offer them. Why not?

Generally speaking, squares play these badly.

  • Squares bet favorites on the money line because they want to root for superior teams and they figure it’s “safer” to ask the team to win straight up rather than cover a number. They’ll be furious if their 7-point favorite only wins by 3-4 points. Why not lay -300 just to win the game?
  • Squares parlay favorites on the money line because they’ve been tricked into thinking they’re getting a great deal at a lowered price. You can parlay a pair of -300 favorites, and you’re risking about $130 to win $100 if they sweep. That might feel very cheap. Parlay a trio of -300 favorites and it flips to risk $100 to win around $135. But, the vigorish is actually the same or worse because of the need to sweep. Sweeping is harder than it looks.
  • Squares avoid underdogs because they can’t imagine anything worse than asking a ’dog to win outright before watching them lose a heartbreaker that would have covered the spread. If asked to choose between taking six points or +220 on the money line, squares will still try to weasel their way into taking the favorite. If forced to make a ’dog choice, they’ll take the points.
  • Squares focus on fear. They’re afraid their favorites might blow a cover in garbage time. They’re afraid underdogs will break their hearts at the end. So, they take the worst of it on favorite money lines while not making the most of live underdogs with upset potential.

VSiN doesn’t want you betting like a square. Focus on long-term value, not what you’re afraid of might happen in any given game.

A great way to do this is to focus on “upset potential” in any game. Don’t try to justify money-line bets on favorites. At first, just make it a mental exercise. What percent of the time will this underdog spring an upset? What are the key factors that cause upsets? Has a matchup advantage been created by a vulnerability or a distraction hurting the favorite?

This might seem daunting at first. But, once a week is in the books, it’s very easy to review all the upsets that happened. You’ll probably realize they’re more common than you had been thinking. Boxscore analysis will show you vulnerabilities you hadn’t thought of (some overhyped teams have poor pass defenses, or turnover-prone quarterbacks). Market analysis will show you which ’dogs the sharps were betting.

If you’re intelligently choosy, winning only half your bets will earn a profit.

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